The Big Story
Quick Take:
- Housing is slowly becoming more affordable, as interest rates slowly creep down over time.
- As of the time this is written, the average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.22%, representing a drastic decline from earlier this year.
- Inventory levels are holding steady, despite slight increases in transaction volume.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, we’re looking at a 65% chance that the Fed cuts rates by another quarter point in their December meeting.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.
📊What This Winter Shift Really Means for You
As the year winds down and everyone starts thinking about budgets, holiday plans, and what 2025 might look like, the real estate market is making a quiet but important shift—one that could matter more than most people realize.
Here’s what’s happening right now and how it could impact your next move.
❄️ Payments Are Easing Just as We Enter the Holiday Season
Interest rates have dipped slightly, and the ripple effect is already here:
- Median monthly P&I payments are trending down
- Buyers entering the market this winter may feel slightly more breathing room
- This could lead to an earlier, more active Spring 2026 market
But the biggest factor?
Homeowners who locked in 2–3% pandemic rates still aren’t ready to give up those payments—so many will stay put until rates drop much more.
🎁 The Fed Delivered a Holiday Surprise: Another Rate Cut
- This matters because:
- Mortgage rates softened almost immediately
- Buyers entering the winter market may catch a more favorable window
- Recent buyers hoping to refinance may get their shot earlier
- The data delayed by the government shutdown will determine whether another cut comes in December
🧣 Inventory Is Still Strong (Which Is Unusual for This Time of Year)
Winter almost always brings:
❌ fewer homes
❌ fewer options
❌ tighter choices
But this year?
- Inventory is up 13.97% year-over-year
- Home sales rose only 6.01%
- Meaning: buyers heading into winter have more options than usual
A rare seasonal twist—and one that won’t necessarily last.
🎄 Another Rate Cut on the Horizon? Possibly.
CME’s FedWatch shows a 65% chance of another cut in December.
But here’s the catch:
- Once delayed economic data is released, those odds may swing fast
- Strong data could delay cuts
- Weak data could accelerate them
This is the moment to pay attention—understanding these numbers now could help you make smarter decisions before the market shifts.
💡 What This Means for You Going Into the New Year
Whether you’re planning a move, holding off, or just staying informed:
- Buyers → Winter may be the most flexible and affordable window we’ve had in years
- Current homeowners → The next two Fed meetings may determine whether 2025–2026 is your ideal time to upgrade
- Anyone watching the market → These shifts are early indicators of a more active spring market ahead
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